No expert disputes the fact that Africa and the African Union will increase its presence and influence in the global affairs as it did in the second decade of the 21st century. Africa will no longer be a trouble maker, but a source of resources — human, natural and creative. The challenge will be to sustain stability while growing and avoid «over-protection» by foreign partners?
China is going to contest for the leading role among Africa's foreign partners and is likely proceed from its traditional principle of non-interference in internal affairs to their careful moderation in order to safeguard its long-term economic interests. India's influence will grow, as well as that of Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The influence and involvement of USA, Japan, Brazil, Israel, and Iran is likely to decrease or remain at the level of the past decade. The role of former colonial powers (such as France) will continue to decline. Continental Europe will retain its chances of preserving some influence in Africa. In this regard Germany will be chasing an axial role in a long-term EU policy towards Africa. Among the G7 countries, only Germany has a potential to extend its influence and presence; Italy and the UK are likely to remain at the same level; the influence of France, USA, Canada, and Japan will relatively decrease.
In military-strategic terms, rivalry in the Indian Ocean basin will have growing significance. The interests of China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Arab countries, Iran, as well as France, the United States and other players are expected to clash. In this regard, these countries will spend significant resources on solidifying their foothold along the entire coast of East Africa, from Egypt to South Africa. The military-strategic importance of the Indian Ocean islands will continue to increase.
According to a study by the Pew Research Center, the Muslim population of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase from 242 million in 2010 to 386 million in 2030, while the Muslim population in North Africa is projected to surge from 195 million to 253 million accordingly. By 2030, Africa — mostly Sub-Saharan Africa — will be home to nearly a quarter of all Muslims worldwide.
Two African countries, Nigeria and Egypt, were included in the Next-11 group (also called N-11) by Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O'Neill, the author of the original BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) idea. The N-11 is the most likely engine of the world economy in the first half of the 21st century. In terms of economic growth and investment African representatives (usually Egypt, Nigeria and/or South Africa) are part of the most promising associations of emerging markets countries, such as VISTA (Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina), MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey), CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, South Africa), etc.
The consensus position in the UN reform concept that is currently being discussed is to give one or two veto permanent Security Council seats to African States. The issue of granting veto power to new members of the Security Council is not being discussed seriously.